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Table 1 The effect of sample number under different evolutionary scenarios. Result in this table are based on typical parameter values from the ancient DNA literature and a bouquet sampling scheme (see text). Fixed parameter values are: fragment length = 500 nucleotides, substitution rate per nucleotide site = 1·10-7, number of extant samples = 30. Given these values any combination of the population size parameter (N e ) and the maximal number of generations spanning the sampling interval (g max ) can be translated to a value of the population parameter (θ) and the maximum length of the sampling interval (τ max ) which are measured in units of generations (see text for definition). For various such parameter combinations we here list the associated values of θ, τ max , and the calculated number of ancient samples needed to have a greater than 95% chance of seeing at least one segregating site where the mutation is unique to the ancient individuals (n u ) and the number of ancient samples needed to have a greater than 95% chance of seeing at least one segregating site where the mutation is shared between ancient and extant individuals (n s ).

From: Tree measures and the number of segregating sites in time-structured population samples

N e

θ

g max

Ï„ max

n u

n s

5000

0.5

1000

0.2

> 50

> 50

-

-

5000

1.0

> 50

> 50

-

-

10000

2.0

> 50

> 50

-

-

30000

6.0

> 50

> 50

-

-

50000

10.0

> 50

> 50

10000

1.0

1000

0.1

> 50

> 50

-

-

5000

0.5

> 50

> 50

-

-

10000

1.0

> 50

> 50

-

-

30000

3.0

42

> 50

-

-

50000

5.0

39

> 50

30000

3.0

1000

0.03

44

3

-

-

5000

0.17

23

5

-

-

10000

0.33

15

7

-

-

30000

1.0

9

> 50

-

-

50000

1.67

7

> 50

50000

5.0

1000

0.02

26

2

-

-

5000

0.1

16

2

-

-

10000

0.2

11

3

-

-

30000

0.6

7

6

-

-

50000

1.0

5

9