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Table 2 Bayesian parameter estimates

From: Fully Bayesian tests of neutrality using genealogical summary statistics

Data Set

Demographic Model

log P(D|M)1

N e Ï„ (years)

r 2

μ 3

α 4

κ

t MRCA (years)

Brown bear

(d-loop)

Constant*

-2200

113,800

-

5.68 × 10-7

0.243

41.8

153,500

 

Exp. growth

-2198

127,000

5.45 × 10-6

5.95 × 10-7

0.243

41.7

145,100

HRSV

(g gene)

Constant*

-6068

36.3

-

0.00242

0.900

12.4

56.1

 

Exp. growth

-6070

53.0

0.0263

0.00239

0.900

12.4

55.8

Dengue-4

(E gene)

Constant

-3960

11.2

-

0.000976

0.167

17.3

19.7

 

Exp. growth*

-3952

38.9

0.134

0.00096

0.167

17.2

19.0

Influenza A

(HA)

Constant*

-4386

4.3

-

0.00503

0.332

5.49

19.0

 

Exp. growth

-4383

7.25

0.0681

0.00506

0.332

5.5

18.9

  1. Posterior parameter estimates from the MCMC analyses. The effective population size is reported only as a product with generation time (N e τ) and the compound parameter has unit of years for virus data sets and radiocarbon years for the brown bear data set. Posterior means are reported for all model parameters. For each data set, the demographic model chosen by a Bayes factor is marked (*). 1marginal likelihood, 2exponential growth rate, 3substitution rate, 4shape parameter of the Γ-distribution.